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Yellowstone Super-Eruption Threat Debunked
Posted by
simoniker
on Thu Mar 11, 2004 01:45 AM
from the you-never-know dept.
from the you-never-know dept.
GennyCream writes "The Internet has been all a-buzz with tin-foil-hat geeks have been in a tizzy over supposed government coverups of a soon-to-come super eruption in Yellowstone (especially see The Shadow Confederacy, but also Rense.com, or BlackVault for entertaining examples). I found an article on ATSNN.com (the Above Top Secret News Network) that cut the paranoia with the proverbial knife and went straight to the source. Their interview with USGS Yellowstone scientists covers all the angles and should inspire the mad-hatters to find something else to fear (for now)."
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News: A Supervolcano Beneath Mt. St. Helens? 180 comments
We've discussed the supervolcano beneath Yellowstone a few times here (not going to blow, 2004; going to blow, 2008). Now scientists are pondering whether a large area of conductive material beneath Mt. St. Helens might contain enough magma that the area could be classed a supervolcano. The jury is still out on this one. Reader nhytefall sends us a New Scientist progress report. "Magma can be detected with a technique called magnetotellurics, which builds up a picture of what lies underground by measuring fluctuations in electric and magnetic fields at the surface. The fields fluctuate in response to electric currents traveling below the surface, induced by lightning storms and other phenomena. The currents are stronger when magma is present, since it is a better conductor than solid rock. ... [M]easurements revealed a column of conductive material that extends downward from the volcano. About 15 km below the surface, the relatively narrow column appears to connect to a much bigger zone of conductive material. This larger zone was first identified in the 1980s by another magnetotelluric survey, and was found to extend all the way to beneath Mount Rainier 70 km to the north-east, and Mount Adams 50 km to the east. It was thought to be a zone of wet sediment, water being a good electrical conductor. ... [Some researchers] now think the conductive material is more likely to be a semi-molten mixture. Its conductivity is not high enough for it to be pure magma.. so it is more likely to be a mixture of solid and molten rock."
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It's Gonna Blow! (Score:5, Funny)
Re:It's Gonna Blow! (Score:5, Funny)
Yeah, but come to think of it, not recently...no wonder they're having problems! Quick, someone pop down to CVS and buy a can! Or maybe spring a little extra for some of that grit-free stuff...
Parent
Re:It's Gonna Blow! (Score:5, Funny)
Hook me up with the deltas, man.
Parent
Re:It's Gonna Blow! (Score:5, Funny)
If you want to see what a blank stare looks like, ask them if they have a larger but less busy store on level 2.
Parent
Re:It's Gonna Blow! (Score:4, Funny)
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Re:It's Gonna Blow! (Score:5, Funny)
(1) A Huge amount of noise and rumbling. . . .
and. .
(2) An eventual, almost silent and un-noticeable implosion. . . .
Parent
If ya really wanna scare yourself... (Score:4, Insightful)
I don't mind a little bit of doom and gloom now and then ... as long as its way off and unlikely. Can be entertaining and makes you forget about your current problems. But I've been reading up stuff lately on Hubbert's Peak, and I gotta say I'm praying its just a tinfoil job cos its scaring the crap out of me.
I came across the Hubbert's Peak a few years ago when I read a book review in American Scientist, but the implications didn't really sink in. Then recently I followed some google links. F*ck me. Just google for "Hubbert's Peak" or "peak oil". Basically, its based on analysis of the remaining cheap oil available to civilisation. Emphasis on cheap oil. Yeah yeah theres heaps of oil in the ground but if its 5 times more expensive then its no good cause the economies of the world will collapse. Here's the scary bit: according to predictions (by geologists) in the next few years (or by 2010) world production of oil will start to drop ... and never recover, and the price will just go up and up. End of civilisation ... yadda yadda. And no time to create alternatives. Funny thing is when you hear people like Dick Cheney saying the Club of Rome was correct, strange days.
Fortunately, on slashdot I can be sure that the majority wont believe this so I am looking forward to basking in some ignorance. I feel like I need it.
Dammit where's that tin foil hat ?
Parent
Re:If ya really wanna scare yourself... (Score:5, Insightful)
If the extraction price of oil came up by a factor of 5, we'd finally have a situation where renewable fuels like bioethanol would become more economically feasible to produce and use than fossil fuel oils. Would the price of operating your car go up? A bit, perhaps 20-30% on average, maybe more. But in fact, a bioethanol-based fuel economy would likely have more stable long term fuel prices than the crazy market we have now, and I'm pretty sure that would be better for the economy then the insanity that's gone on over the last 5 years with fuel prices up and down by more than a factor of 2.
Beyond basic automotive uses, there are still a lot of other uses for oil in the form of petroleum-derived products like plastics. I don't know the actual breakdown of uses, but I suspect that most of these products could be adapted to production from other forms of hydrocarbons as oil becomes more expensive. Or perhaps there would continue to be a sufficient supply of oil to make these products if the automotive uses were eliminated.
In short, I don't think the world economy would crash overnight since I don't think the supply will run dry overnight - prices will start rising, and people will adapt to the technologies that have already been developed. Some serious legislative intervention may be required to speed things up when that does happen. But a lot of us would be happy indeed to see an end to the privileged role the oil-producing countries play on the world political scene.
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Re:the problem with bioethanol... (Score:5, Informative)
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You can all take off your tin-foil hats now.... (Score:5, Informative)
Here's your hat (Score:3, Funny)
I suggest you wear your tinfoil hat. The government is gonna get you now.
Ben
Geological Time (Score:5, Interesting)
The sad thing is that I only get to live a human life span and will miss most of it.
BTW, there is a hot spot under Yellowstone and big cinder cones and a lot of lave flows in Idaho. I think there is a better than average changes of some major event in a short geological time frame.
Parent
Re:Geological Time (Score:5, Interesting)
Oh, there absolutely is, and its a whopper. What do you think is driving all the geysers? The real issue this poster was raising however was a more discrete event in the predictable near future, thus my post. At some point, the magma chamber may indeed break through, but there is no advanced knowledge of when that is going to be and certainly no conspiracy.
Parent
Re:Geological Time (Score:5, Informative)
Smaller eruptions are, however, much more common. There are various sorts of volcanic events that might qualify as "smaller eruptions," and it really wouldn't surprise me to see one in my lifetime.
Steam explosions seem like the most likely candidate for the next eruption. Small ones occur every few years. These can blast steam and scorching hot rock high in to the air, but don't result in the actual eruption of lava -- they occur far above any molten rock. These events occur when groundwater, heated from below, flashes catastrophically to steam. Doing so entails the liquid water rapidly increasing in volume, and in order to make room for itself, rock (as well as trees, people, bison, and anything that might get in the way) may be excavated from the vicinity of the explosion. There's a bulge underneath Yellowstone lake that some people speculate is caused by the accumulation of hydrothermal gases and that may possibly represent the future site of a steam explosion (although, again, that's just speculation at this point), and part of Norris Geyser Basin has been temporarily closed because of concern that it could be the site of a future steam explosion -- the ground there recently heated up to around 200 degrees F. Generally, however, steam explosions are hard to predict, and they're also usually fairly localized and fleeting events that present relatively little hazard.
There are also several dozen non-caldera forming volcanoes in the caldera and immediate vicinity. Most of these erupted shortly before or after the last giant eruption that occurred (roughly) 640,000 years ago. Keep in mind, however, that shortly is relative: most were spaced several thousand years apart. The last one erupted about 70,000 years ago.
The nice thing about volcanic eruptions is that they usually give some indication that they're coming before any eruption actually occurs. Warning signs can include: ground inflation over wide areas which can be detected by tiltmeters, GPS, and satellite inferometry; changes in groundwater chemistry; earthquake swarms that indicate magma moving a depth; volcanic tremors; and changes in volcanic gas discharge from the ground (this effect can be observed at Long Valley Caldera [usgs.gov] in California where CO2 escaping from magma has killed many trees, and is present in high enough concentration to be dangerous for humans in some situations). Yellowstone is, furthermore, very well monitored and to date there is no increase in bckground activity to indicate any volcanic eruption is imminent.
Human history has never recorded a giant caldera forming eruption like those that have occurred at Yellowstone and Long Valley Caldera, we know they are very infrequent events, and also know that much smaller events are much, much, more common. The largest eruptions should also give many of the same kinds of warning signs that other eruptions give, and probably many more. Again, it's also worth noting that past such eruptions at Yellowstone were prefaced for thousands of years by smaller eruptions.
Parent
Re:You can all take off your tin-foil hats now.... (Score:4, Funny)
As a member of the Illuminati, I know that he is most certainly not a part of the conspiracy.
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Guv'mint conspiracy? (Score:5, Funny)
Their interview with USGS Yellowstone scientists covers all the angles and should inspire the mad-hatters to find something else to fear (for now).
Of course they won't. If anything they'll take it as a confirmation of the big government conspiracy to cover it up! The scientists were obviously on the government's payroll... (as they probably are, of course).
Re:Guv'mint conspiracy? (Score:3, Insightful)
Geological & Astronomical timescales are not h (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Geological & Astronomical timescales are no (Score:5, Insightful)
Maybe when the asteroid hits it. Of which there is also certainly a chance.
Simple, factual uncertainty wigs some people out more than anything else.
"My God! We're all going to die!"
Well yeah, Sparky. Get used to it. But on the whole the greatest risk you face over the next several years is your drive to work. That ought to scare you silly. Roll over in bed. See your sweetie lying there? You're more likely to die at his/her hand than by a volcanic eruption. Even if you live in Hawaii. Be afraid. Be very afraid.
Dig a hole. Crawl in. Die in the cave in because you were afraid of shoddy workmanship by contractors (paid off by the government, no doubt) and did a much worse job yourself.
Either that or just lighten up, ferchristsake. Here, have a nice glass of cognac and a cigar to relax.
Hey, why are you running away?
Oh. Yeah. The government has told you that will kill you, nearly on the spot.
Ain't it funny how people chose to chose what they want to believe about what the government tells them? I can't figure it out.
KFG
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Re:Geological & Astronomical timescales are no (Score:5, Interesting)
The numbers game is different from the 'chances of asteroids hitting'. Let me explain, (following numbers are just for example, but you get the idea) Chances of been hit by asteroid.
Year 1 - 0.0000001 %
Year 2 - 0.0000001 %
Year 3 - 0.0000001 %
Year 9999 - 0.0000001 %
Chances yellowstone errupting.
Year 1 - 0.0000001 %
Year 2 - 0.0000002 %
Year 3 - 0.0000003 %
Year 9999 - 0.0009999 %
The difference between Yellowstone going up in smoke, and an asteroid, is that the chances of erruption increase each year an erruption hasn't occured, due to the previous years magma adding to the pressure. Eventually, the chances will become large enough that it will be more lightly to happen than not. As opposed to the asteroid hitting, that might happen, but probably not... and also not subject to the previous years non-event effecting this years chances.
Parent
HAHAHAHAHHA! (Score:4, Insightful)
Sir, you are absolutely insane.
More Americans die in 36 hours from heart disease than were killed by terrorism in the entire year of 2001 (source [cdc.gov])
If you're going to worry, at least worry about something that you actually have any control over - stop smoking. Take care with your diet and make sure that you get enough exercise. Don't drink and drive. Wear your seatbelt and make sure that you maintain your car.
Worrying about terrorism isn't going to do anything, and your reaction to any "terror" event will be the same as if it wasn't terrorism: if there are shots, explosions or big fires - grab the nearest person who needs assistance - and run. Of course, if you've been worrying about your health rather than terrorism - you'll actually be able to run rather than waddle.
Parent
Correction (Score:5, Informative)
You seem to have forgotten this gem [slashdot.org].
I got your tin foil hat right here!
Don't forget the "classic" BBC supervolcano report (Score:5, Interesting)
The interview above simply debunks the idea that there are currently any clues that an eruption is imminent (although much of it seemed to say "we're not measuring that"). However, there really is a giant magma chamber under Yellowstone, and if it ever breached in the right (or wrong) way, the continental US would be toast, and the rest of the planet would experience a nuclear winter style scenario.
Depending on how you project the historical numbers, we may already be overdue for the next eruption. Then again, the margin for error is measured in millenia, so it's a little like the major asteroid strike scenario: it could happen anytime, but it probably won't.
Parent
Dead fish? (Score:5, Funny)
From the article: Large numbers of dead fish were not found in Yellowstone Lake, or any other lake in Yellowstone.
<HATTER TYPE="mad">So where were they found then?</HATTER>Re:Dead fish? (Score:5, Funny)
KFG
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Re:Dead fish? (Score:4, Funny)
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Suuure... (Score:5, Funny)
You'd like us to think that, wouldn't you? But everyone knows that angles were an invention brought to us by the purple skinned cat-people around the same time they built the pyramids and invented the mass hallucination that is Sweden! Nice try, though.
Eruptions in the US (Score:5, Funny)
There is no big eruption planned in the continental US (don't know about Alaska or Hawaii). Otherwise I'd know.
Re:Eruptions in the US (Score:4, Funny)
Maybe its an unplanned eruption?
Parent
Eruptions in Alaska (Score:4, Interesting)
Here's the scoop from the Alaska Volcano Observatory [alaska.edu]. And here is some information on what to do during an eruption [uaf.edu]. "Alaska is home to more than 40 volcanoes that have erupted in the last 200 years, and more than half of the state's population lives within 100 miles of an active volcano. The single greatest hazard from an explosive volcanic eruption is ash, fine fragments of rock blown into the atmosphere during volcanic eruption. Ash is carried downwind where the coarser particles fall to the ground and fine ash forms a cloud that is carried with the air currents. Ash is extremely abrasive, does not dissolve in water, and is heavy and slippery when wet. Inhaling ash can be dangerous, especially for those with breathing problems, for children, and the elderly. While ash is falling to the ground, you may experience prolonged darkness, loss of water and electricity, and have transportation and communication problems.
I remember day being like midnight during one of the eruptions. The description above is very conservative. But it is my choice to live here, and I am well aware of the hazards. I've nearly been stomped by a moose in my year, and charged by bears, so a volcano is seemingly less of a threat. At least we don't have any muggers here.
And here is a page for very recent earthquakes in Alaska, Russian Far East, Japan [alaska.edu], etc.
-cp-
Parent
Northwest Passage (Score:5, Interesting)
"North Pacific and Russian Far East air routes (gray lines) pass over or near more than a hundred potentially active volcanoes (red triangles). Aircraft flying along these routes, some of the busiest in the world, carry more than 10,000 passengers and millions of dollars of cargo each day to and from Asia, North America, and Europe. In the North Pacific region, several explosive eruptions occur every year. Ash from these eruptions, which has caused jet engines to fail, is usually blown to the east and northeast, directly across the air routes."
And here's what happened to one 747: "As the crew of KLM Flight 867 struggled to restart the plane's engines, "smoke" and a strong odor of sulfur filled the cockpit and cabin. For five long minutes the powerless 747 jetliner, bound for Anchorage, Alaska, with 231 terrified passengers aboard, fell in silence toward the rugged, snow-covered Talkeetna Mountains (7,000 to 11,000 feet high). All four engines had flamed out when the aircraft inadvertently entered a cloud of ash blown from erupting Redoubt Volcano, 150 miles away. The volcano had begun erupting 10 hours earlier on that morning of December 15, 1989. Only after the crippled jet had dropped from an altitude of 27,900 feet to 13,300 feet (a fall of more than 2 miles) was the crew able to restart all engines and land the plane safely at Anchorage. The plane required $80 million in repairs, including the replacement of all four damaged engines."
-cp-
Alaska Bugs Sweat Gold Nuggets [alaska-freegold.com]
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If there's one thing you can count on ... (Score:5, Funny)
If there's one thing you can count on, its that mad-hatters never let any facts get in their way.
Conspiracy theories?? (Score:4, Insightful)
The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (Score:5, Informative)
There is a lots of information concerning the actual research being conducted.
Caldera everywhere (Score:3, Funny)
Coast to Coast AM (Score:4, Funny)
Bias and Progress? (Score:5, Interesting)
One thing I have encountered is the bias, whereby someone is so in love with a theory that they are blind to the fair maden that comes along later. It's hard to let go of the comfortable setup you have built over the years, and when some fresh outsider comes along and tells you different, it gets the blood boiling.
I have encountered this with grizzled old prospectors who were positive they had found the next Sudbury or Ft. Knox [kinross.com], as well as 'cultured, educated' folks who have spent most of their time in the drawing room discussing theory. I have found numerous rich deposits, but due to economics, politics, or other obstacles, most shall remain ummined for now. In most cases, I dispensed with current trends and went back to the old stuff.
Too often, someone will arrive at a "conclusion" that might look good at the time, but prove to be very wrong later. So what? Someone has to get it wrong. But one has to be able to release that burning stick.
The Earth has many very serious events in its' past. We can expect more, and we have truly been living in a period of relative peacefulness. I've been to Yellowstone many times, and know what it is like to slip into a pool heated by the Earth, while Elk and Bison graze nearby. Been to Crater Lake, too. Now THAT was a big ol explosion, but it happened way before I got there. I've been in 3 volcanic eruptions, 2 in Alaska. It's quite exciting. One time I raced an oncoming cloud of ash.
Funny, but when I read this I thought of the people I read of near Mt. St. Helens, and some friends I had in the Phillipines.
-cp-
Re:Bias and Progress? (Score:5, Interesting)
Another of the biggies was reported to be Lake Taupo in New Zealand. As well as having one of the largest (I think the 26.5ka Oruanui event has been estimated at 800 cubic km). The more recent eruption around 181AD was only about 50 cubic km, but is estimated to be one of the most violent eruptions.
They have found metres of deposits from Taupo in Auckland which is over 250km away. One of the field trips we did on the Cities on Volcanoes 2 conference in Auckland in 2001, took us to Tamaki in Auckland where we could see around 6m worth of deposit from one Taupo eruption. I think it was this eruption that has been linked to the Chinese noticing changes in their sunsets.
Check out google [google.com] for more info
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Long Valley Caldera (Score:5, Interesting)
This past semester in my geology class we did an in depth study about volcanos and this caldera in particular. My professor has a great deal of enthusiasm about this supervolcano because it is most likely going to erupt within the next 50-100 years.
Re:Long Valley Caldera (Score:5, Interesting)
Volcanic activity has occured there within the last 600 years or so as well. Just take a short drive up 395 to Obsidian Dome. That pile of obsidian wasn't there 600 years ago! What is actually interesting is that you can sit on top of Obsidian Dome and look north towards Mono Lake and you will see a series of similiar looking hills that form the Mono-Inyo Craters.
There is a lot of evidence that there is magma beneath the ground. From various earthquake swarms, to the hot springs towards the south to the treekill at Horseshow Lake.
Anyway, check out the USGS's outlook on the Long Valley Caldera [usgs.gov] and also browse around the
Parent
Tin Foil Hats indeed (Score:4, Interesting)
This guy is certifiable. Ahh.. isn't the internet wonderful.
Why Yellowstone, anyway. . ? (Score:4, Insightful)
But it didn't seem like the thing to be focusing on. The Yellowstone situation, (or non-situation, depending on your news source), seems more like a symptom than a real focus of concern.
With Blue Bands showing up on Jupiter, (indicating massive upheavals of lower atmospheric gasses), and the crazy solar flare activity of late last summer. .
Like the tides, this stuff is gravity related. Something big is going on out there, and I've mentioned one of the theories as to what may be many (modded to dust) posts ago.
--Brown Dwarf Companion to the Sun passing nice and close out Pluto-way. Moving through the Kuiper Belt. Disrupting comets down into lower orbits. Cyclical comet disasters on Earth based on this. --We're seeing the final bits of the last cycle burning up and even hitting the earth even now. . . Soon to be renewed by a bunch of rocks from the rim!
Not something to get upset over, of course, but watch the skies! I wonder where the first big one is going to land. . ?
As the esoterics say, "The Human experiential cycle is mirrored by the Universe." --And Human experience is a pretty harsh ride at the moment. The world has gone nuts.
--I just read in a local paper that cops are now charging people for leaving their keys inside unlocked cars. In order to protect the insurance corporations! It may be subtle, but it's basically saying that it's against the law to trust my fellow humans. And the fact is that most people won't even blink an eyelash at his.
Yep. The world is nuts.
-FL
assessment (Score:5, Informative)
Anyhow, I'm just establishing that I have some tiny bit of credibility, despite the fact that I admit I'm not a fully-trained or professional geologist.
I think, aside from the tinfoil-hat bent, the issue here boils down to two questions: Is Yellowstone a danger? And, Is the danger immediate?
To the first, the answer is a powerful yes. Were Yellowstone to blow like it has before, there's a pretty good chance most of the human population would be wiped out.
To the second question, the answer is: probably not. Overall, the geothermal activity in Yellowstone has been cooling down in the last fifty years. There is an increase in geothermal activity North of Yellowstone, but I've been informed that it's new and a relatively small danger. The theory is, in regards to that, that the hot spot which has caused all the fun activity in Yellowstone is simply moving northward.
As for the rest... well, you can draw your own conclusions.
(Apologies for any errors or typos; I'm literally half asleep as I type this.)
~UP
Chaotic and Quixotic... (Score:5, Insightful)
The folks in Japan thought they had quakes down flat, then Kyoto showed them they were rediculously under prepared. Even now, people are building home virtually "on" the San Andreas fault in southern California, because the short term economics outweighs the long term insanity of certain disaster. The biggest threats to people, of the hand of god type, are; * Surprise boulders or snowballs from space, * Super Volcanoes (the magma chamber under Mammoth Mountain California are a lot more scary than the Yellowstone caldera, at least at present.) * Super Tsunamis (a large slope failure on the big island in Hawaii could produce a wave over a thousand feet high on the American west coast.) * A tremendous amount of methane has been discovered on the Atlantic ocean floor. If the gas that is currently locked up were to be released all at once, a disaster killing millions of Europeans or Africans would be almost certain. * A super deadly bug, currently hidden in the deep tropics get contracted and spreads around the world making SARS, HIV, Chicken Flu, and Ebola look like a walk throug the park. We know there are terrible nasties in the jungle. It's only a matter of time before somebody catches something truly grievous. We know that the human population was at one time reduced to fewer than 1,500. Around the same time about 25,000 years ago, many of our closest hominid cousins went to their final rest. This coincides fairly well with a really big supervolcano eruption in Malasia (I believe), that may have made things very difficult for hominids for more than a decade. So we know this is a real threat. The problem is that largish tracts of history pass with no sign of serious disaster then BOOM! Something goes horribly wrong. Lot's of people get pushed off this mortal coil. Lot's of people pass down legends about the hard times and people forget. After a few years it's business as usual.
Our leaders need to take realistic precautions. They need to create sound technological contigencies for real but rare threats. The work on this super disasters should be proportinal to the likelihood of serious destruction divided by the real probability of the threat... i.e. spend more on helping folks lose weight and quit smoking, than making national plans to survive a super volcano.
Within reason protect people from their own stupidity, and short sightedness. At the same time, it is important to prioritize threats, and make sure that you're addressing the ones that will more often than not bite you in the butt. Once you've got those issuesmanaged, then you have time and resources to protect yourself against the vagueries of the universe. That and you spent more time having a life that worked, than worrying about what you cannot control.
Genda
Re:Is it just me or .. (Score:4, Interesting)
My point is this: why is it so bad to ask these questions? We're perfectly willing to believe conspiracies between SCO and Microsoft but we accept the government at face value on things such as this and ridicule the doubters? Why is this?
I'm not trying to start a flame war, but I'm genuinely curious why we take such negative attitudes toward questions such as whether the government doesn't yet want to inform the public over seismic concerns in the Yellowstone area. I'll probably get modded down, but I'd like to know.
Parent
Re:Is it just me or .. (Score:3, Insightful)
I think that it is because our mind-view of someone calling the government a major hoax is that of a prankster/crank. However, it seems perfectly legitimate to assume that SCO and MS behave the way they do because corporates have that view of devilish, scheming villains in our heads.
Or maybe, it is better put as, we've seen a lot of false alarms like these and ridiculing questions like these are our natural way to get better at evad
Re:Is it just me or .. (Score:5, Insightful)
In general, they aren't. Unless one of the following occurs:
We're perfectly willing to believe conspiracies between SCO and Microsoft but we accept the government at face value on things such as this and ridicule the doubters? Why is this?
See the above list.
but I'm genuinely curious why we take such negative attitudes toward questions such as whether the government doesn't yet want to inform the public over seismic concerns in the Yellowstone area.
Mostly because nobody is able to see any reason for the government to keep it a secret. Thus there can't be a conspiracy. Who are they conspiring against? People in the yellowstone area? Why? That doesn't make sense...
If, as you say, there is "secret" research going on to find out if it's going to be dangerous there, then it's actually the opposite of a conspiracy. They are doing it in secret to prevent panic, loss of lives and property.
Parent
Re:Is it just me or .. (Score:5, Interesting)
I don't think it's bad to ask the questions. However, when people start constructing massive theories based on scant evidence and then cling to them madly, that's a different matter.
Scientists are smart people, and many of them are happy to answer questions from people who don't specialize in that area. It can be frustrating, though, when one of those people is dead set on believing something that is completely crazy.
For comparison, I went to a lecture by Brian Greene (author of The Elegant Universe [barnesandnoble.com]) last night. He's a very, very smart guy, but he is also good at explaining things like quantum mechanics and string theory to non-physicists like me.
At the end of the lecture, there was a question and answer session.
One of the people asked a lengthy question about similarities between the language of mysticism (the "word of God" and the vibrational jibber-jabber that some people are into now) and that of advanced physics (e.g. string theory and the idea that all particles are actually the result of vibrations). He was obviously a misguided UFO guy, but because he asked the question in an open-minded way, Greene was able to turn it into an interesting topic.
Later, a woman came to the microphone and started off by accusing him of being biased towards "European mathematics," and that if he's interested in the higher dimensions that string theory predicts, he should be investigating the Africans who can enter the fifth dimension and that Einstein was looking for some Buddhist chant that would function as a unified theory. Because she was dead set in her crazy ways, he couldn't turn it into an interesting discussion and basically had to just tell her she was wrong.
Parent
Re:Proof, probability, and history (Score:5, Informative)
The interview points out that since the last caldera-forming eruption, which was 640,000 years ago, there have been 30 smaller eruptions. That's an average of one eruption per 21,000 years. According to the USGS [usgs.gov], the last eruption at Yellowstone was 70,000 years ago. It's not unreasonable to suggest that another eruption could occur in the near future.
As for the threat of a massive caldera-forming eruption. the same USGS site reports that they tend to have occurred every 600,000 to 800,000 years over the past 2.1 million years. Since the last such eruption was 640,000 years, it's not unreasonable to suggest that such an eruption could occur within the next 200,000 years if the pattern continues. The threat of such an eruption is overplayed in some of the articles cited in the story, but is not completely unreasonable.
Note, also, that there aren't any records of what happened the last time Yellowstone had a massive eruption. Such an eruption has not been observed.
Also, the government does have a tendency to downplay threats while they are still being investigated.
I tend to think the questions are reasonable but exaggerated. But if the government downplays stuff, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. I just don't think people ought to be ridiculed when it's easy enough just to debunk them with the facts if they really are wrong.
Parent
Re:Documentary (Score:5, Insightful)
The fact is we don't know when Yellowstone will erupt, it could be tomorrow, it could be in a million years.
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