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Chinese Moon Base by 2012 - or 2006?
Posted by
michael
on Fri May 30, 2003 08:02 AM
from the moonraker dept.
from the moonraker dept.
apsmith writes "Former congressman and House Science chairman Robert S. Walker has written some rather striking conclusions about Chinese intentions in space over the next few years, based on information received for the recent Commisison on the Future of Aerospace. Walker is convinced the Chinese are going all-out for a permanent settlement on the Moon within 10 years; apparently some closer to the situation in Japan think the first landing will be in only 3-4 years. Meanwhile the Economist says IT people are starting to focus on space as the next high-tech venue. Fortunately, despite NASA's neglect, we do have a few private missions to the Moon in the works."
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Good for them! (Score:4, Insightful)
I'd just be happy to see Homo Sapiens someplace other than Earth.
Re:Good for them! (Score:5, Funny)
You want them to be more woken up? Not me. The USA is acting likes it's on a caffine and sugar high at the moment.
USA Hey, maybe we should bomb Syria? Or Iran? You know, for world peace?
Rest of world Erm. Let's just think about it for a bit, shall we?
USA What?! [Crazy stare] Are you threatening me? Huh, huh? I thought you were my friend? Well you're no friend of mine. You want a fight? Huh? Huh? I can take you all on...
I, for one, would prefer the USA to take a bit of a nap, rather than being woken up!
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The Russians (Score:5, Informative)
No flag, but they did have the first landing [wikipedia.org], 2 rovers [wikipedia.org], and 24 unmanned probes which even returned samples.
In a lot of respects they beat us pretty well on the moon. I think the technical details of unmanned rovers and returning samples all remotely are very cool.
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Re:Good for them! (Score:5, Insightful)
"The second best thing about space travel is that the distances involved make war very difficult, usually impractical, and almost always unnecessary. This is probably a loss for most people, since war is our race's most popular diversion, one which gives purpose and color to dull and stupid lives.
But it a great boon to the intelligent man who fights only when he must -- never for sport."
Space wars are too expensive compared to just moving to the next rock.
Parent
Re:Good for them! (Score:5, Insightful)
Yes, but never underestimate the willingness of the Chinese government to let its citizens die in the service of bragging rights. The technology to do this is now more than 30 years old, not very hard to replicate, and as long as the Chinese are willing to accept considerable loss of life they'll have no problem reaching their goal, however useless the results. (Example: China vastly increased steel production in the 1950s by encouraging "home industry". A great success on paper, but the steel was so poorly made as to be virtually useless. Meanwhile, millions died from famine.)
I view a Chinese moon shot simply as an attempt to demonstrate to the people that their government leads them to great things, and why should they care if they're being oppressed when they're on the moon and the Americans aren't? If nothing else, it'll artificially boost China's aerospace industry and wean them away from dependence on American collaborators like Boeing.
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Re:Water's not the only liquid in universe (Score:5, Informative)
The Soviets also considered a nuclear pre-emptive strike on their nuclear weapons plant before their first test.
In the meantime the PLA's missiles have not been extended in range save for a very few missiles. They do have some Submarine base missiles but that would be tracked/destroyed by the vastly superior US Navy. They only have 3 or 4 subs.
The US government's assesment of Chinese nuclear capability is classified but there are lost of info on the net. They do pack a punch but their delivery range is very limited.
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I don't get it... (Score:5, Funny)
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Re:Water's not the only liquid in universe (Score:5, Interesting)
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Re:Good for them! (Score:5, Insightful)
Open your mind you ignorant twit. Capitalism and communism are both extremes, neither works in it's pure form, and just so you know, the US is FAR from being the most capitalistic nation on the planet, you will find most of those in Asia.
Do you know what condition Russia was in right after the communist revolution? They were a mostly agrarian, poor as hell, big nation. They had the one of (the?) fastest industrializations in history. They went from being little other than a source of men to put into a German meat grinder in WWII (sometimes men were required to share rifles!). to being the only significant military and technology competitor to the US in a decade or two. How the hell is that a failure of communism, also during that time the standard of living of the average Russian citizen was skyrocketing, even though it never got up to what the American one was (America was not hit nearly as hard by WWII), it was growing very fast. Remember that AMERICAN astronauts had to ride a RUSSIAN capsule (developed under communism) back to earth recently, because our shit wasn't working. Also remember that the moon was just about the only space related achievement that we beat them to (first artificial satellite, man in space, orbit of the moon...)
I am an American, I love what my country is supposed to stand for, but there are too many ignorant dumb asses here f***ing it up. I am a patriot, I love my country, but we are not inherently superior, other ways of doing things do work. OPEN YOUR DAMN MIND!
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"Fortunately" ??? (Score:5, Interesting)
I thought this was like Antartic : a Free (as in... uh?) place.
Re:"Fortunately" ??? (Score:5, Funny)
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Re:"Fortunately" ??? (Score:5, Funny)
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Re:"Fortunately" ??? (Score:5, Funny)
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Xenophobia... (Score:5, Insightful)
Hmm... interesting theory. So you're saying that the moon is a means for a Chineese attack on the U.S.?
You do realize that the Pacific ocean is easier to traverse than the distance between the earth and the moon?
You do also realize that the U.S. has demonstrated the effectiveness of nuclear submarines as a "last strike" deterrant?
Do you think it is possible that rather than nuking the U.S., the Chineese goverment wants to use this for genuine research, some nationalist bragging rights and as an asset to build or develop international relations?
Parent
Re:Xenophobia... (Score:5, Insightful)
Can I rephrase this?
Here's the next day's headline: The US declares it will restructure Iraq's government. Reminds Iran/Syria of its military capability and warns Iran/Syria not to interfere in issues of Iraq sovereignty.
Parent
Turning the tables on the world's bully... (Score:5, Insightful)
How is your concern any diferent to that of anyone else in the world whilst there is the current American administration with a view that the US can do what it wants, when it wants, to whomever it wants through the threat of military force?
Shouldn't we all be dancing together anyway? What has happened to diplomacy and negotiation in an attempt to improve everybody's lot?
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Re:Gosh, free speech? Freedom to assemble (Score:5, Interesting)
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This is all part of the plan at NASA (Score:5, Funny)
Re: Chinese Restaurant on the moon (Score:5, Funny)
(rimshot)
Thanks, I'll be here all week...
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Let's Help Them Out (Score:5, Interesting)
I really think space is not something that should be done alone by a nation, though. I think we should see how we can help or team up with China in some way. It could be the common bond that finally helps us get over this mini-me cold war that we have going on with them.
Space exploration should no longer exist as a competitive sport. Write your representatives and let them know that you support US cooperation with China in space.
Re:Let's Help Them Out (Score:5, Insightful)
A cooperative approach would be nice, but look what competition has gotten us so far: going from the first man-made satellite to walking on the moon in 12 years, with the first powered flight only about 50 years before that. It's been over 30 years since we've been to the moon, isn't it time we go back?
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Good! (Score:4, Interesting)
Personally, I'm hoping that only #1 will happen. Competition is good. See what's happened since we lost an 'opponent' in the space race? We've grown complacent. Having another space will be good for just about everything (national pride, the tech sector, the economy in general, innovation, etc).
What about #3? (Score:5, Interesting)
In my opinion, this is a distinct possibility. If they have the willpower to do it, they WILL pull it off without US help or competition. Personally, I hope this or some collaborated(sp?) effort is the case because I really want to see more people in space and the expansion of the human race beyond the thin atmosphere between us and the rest of the universe. Granted the moon is just a baby step (and we're talking a baby atom here) on the cosmic scale of things, but we need to start somewhere, and if the currently most active space program on the planet will not do it, then let someone else. We ARE all human here anyway.
Along these lines, there have been some other posts to this story about the financial problems and the probable lack of commercial return from these ventures. I say to that, Who the hell CARES??? This is the future we are talking about here. This is the possible expansion of the human race. Personally, if I could be around in 20,000 years to see it, I would really like for the Galaxy to be much like Isaac Asimov wrote in his Robot Series and Foundation Series. There is still all of the good and bad of human nature, but we will be free of these earthly bounds and able to go just about anywhere we please.
Not to sound cheesy (and Trek-y) but Space really is the final frontier, and I think we (as a species) need to get off our lazy earth-bound asses and get out there to see what we can find. We really need to work harder to make science fiction into science reality, IMHO.
Of course, I really am just a clueless, idealistic dreamer, but perhaps if there were more people like me and less business-y, money grubbing, power hungry jerks in the world then perhaps we would already be out to Mars and on our way to Jupiter, Saturn, or even Proxima-Centauri...
Sorry for the huge digression and the rant, but whenever I see stories like this and people putting down those who try (not the parent post, but others in this story) it makes me a bit hot-headed (well...the beer helps too).
"Knowledge is power" - Sir Francis Bacon
"Imagination is more important than knowledge" - Albert Einstein
I think the human race needs to take those quotes a bit more to heart. We need both more "small steps for man" and more "giant leaps for mankind".
Again, sorry for the rant. Goodbye Karma.
Parent
The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress (Score:5, Interesting)
Whoever has the moon, has the Earth. If anyone is thinking of entering an expansionist phase, it would behoove them to set up shop there. They are at the top of the gravity well, we're at the bottom.
I am sure there are
I like to maintain a positive outlook, but that is much easier with hindsight rather than foresight.
]3
ps - I didn't have anyone in mind when I mentioned entering an expansionist era - if you associated the remark with any particular geopolitical entity, that was your own doing!
Re:The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress (Score:5, Insightful)
Nor can democracy stop a thousand nuclear warheads. Come on, why would any nation with the technology to go to the moon and hurl rocks at us not just use nuclear weapons instead? They surely provide far more bang for the buck.
And what could the moon possibly do for an expansionist nation? Do you have any idea how much it costs to send 1kg to the moon? In human history, expansion has always been driven by quest for resources--whether those resources are wealth (Spain), land (America), natural resources (Japan), or whatever else. But how could the moon provide these things more efficiently than underutilized parts of Earth? I tell you what, it would be a hell of a lot cheaper for the Chinese to send people to shiver in Antarctica than on the moon, and they'd probably get more out of it.
No, we have nothing to fear from a Chinese base on the moon. Until we have the technology to make transport to and from the moon cheap, it's a useless pile of rock.
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Re:The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress (Score:5, Informative)
Never let anyone tell you it isn't worth it to go to the moon.
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The US Govt response to this threat (Score:4, Funny)
The United States Government's Department of Homeland Security has announced that Robert Heinlein is now wanted under the U.S. Patriot Act for sponsoring terrorism. His idea of using the moon as a base to attack Americans will not be tolerated.
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Re:The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress (Score:5, Insightful)
For lack of reason, not for lack of ability.
I think you're missing the point. A chinese base with an accellerator and a big pile of rocks wouldn't void MAD, far from it, it would keep it alive. US anti-ballistic missile technology may well be able to nullify their ICBMs soon, and the thought does NOT sit well with them, nor should we expect it to. Particularly given the recent shift of US policy from quiet imperialism to very very loud blatant imperialism.
On the other hand, interceptor missiles are pretty useless against the types of projectiles in this scenario, at the very least it's a MUCH harder job, to really nullify them you'd have to knock the heat shielding off very early in the trajectory, and if they're big enough even that wouldn't work. Deflecting them a touch isn't going to make things much better either. So this sort of capability could be what keeps MAD alive for the rest of the century, or at least a few crucial decades...
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Good! Why do 'we' always have to be first? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Good! Why do 'we' always have to be first? (Score:5, Informative)
It's amazing what people don't know about history isn't it. If the person that posted the parent to this thread wants to actually learn something about the Korean War and China's involvment in attacking a Western Power, this is a very good FAQ on the subject.
http://www.centurychina.com/history/krwarfaq.html [centurychina.com]
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Re:Good! Why do 'we' always have to be first? (Score:5, Informative)
Do you remember the Korean War?
More to the point, do you remember the Korean War? It had little to do with China until the United States refused to respect China's desire not to have a repeat of 1940.
Remember that in 1940 Japan, under the guise of being neutral to China, fought their way up the Korean peninsula all the while constantly telling the Chinese to relax because all they wanted was Korea. The Chinese told them to stop at the end of the peninsula, to leave a Korean buffer between peninsular Japan and mainland China, and the Japanese said they would honor this. When they had taken the whole peninsula, they kept coming, disavowing the Chinese desire for a buffer. Still the Chinese waited and did not defend themselves. Once all of Korea was taken, the Japanese rolled over the Chinese border, and for five long years China was held by the fascist military regime of Japan.
So you'll have to excuse China for defending themselves when, scarcely ten years later, the United States announced that they were going to "help" the South Koreans recapture Korea. The US said that they would stop at the 38th parallel, and China said it would not get involved as long as the 38th parallel was respected. But when the 38th parallel was reached, the American troops kept rolling in a fashion reminiscent to 1940. They kept moving, and they were quickly approaching the top of the peninsula. Again, China said that they would not intervene so long as the US did not enter the mainland, and the US agreed.
So when American troops reached the top of the peninsula and kept on rolling, pardon the Chinese for thinking this looked a bit too much like the last time it had been invaded. America broke its word twice, at the same points at which the Japanese had broken their word. McArthur was known for hating the communist Chinese, at one point seriously suggesting that the US should rain 60-80 atom bombs down on China to make sure we get them before they could hit us. The American military was much too greedy and found the North Koreans too easy a target. The generals were (in typical American fashion) completely ignorant (that's different from being unaware) of Chinese perceptions of American action. While I feel sorry for the poor American soldiers who died, I also think the US got what it had coming when China struck back. The Chinese see their involvement in the Korean War as purely defensive, and I think that's a fair interpretation.
So yes, I remember the Korean War, and I would love to see the Chinese reach the moon second and build a moon base first.
Parent
Oh No! Nuke Them! (Score:5, Funny)
Since we have about 4 Future Technologies already, I beileve we should launch a full scale attack on China, take our scientific research down to 0% to collect as much gold as possible, and start building our own.
While we are at it, we probably shouldn't ask for a UN vote, we will surely fail, and lose there too.
What would be America's best way to win? We've already secured some oil resources, we need to build a harbor!
No surprise (Score:5, Interesting)
As a fellow dreamer, I can't think of a better outcome to the dotcom-dotbomb cycle than the kick-off of a vibrant commercial space industry. (Well, maybe the immediate cessation of world poverty and the industrial destruction of the environment. But the chances of that happening even with a couple of motivated dotcom dreamers at the helm, are probably close to nil. At least space doesn't have too much in the way of entrenched powers that prefer the status quo.)
Better the Chinese than nobody. (Score:5, Insightful)
As a Westerner who sadly recognizes the fact that his society has abandoned space exploration and colonization, I'm more than happy for the Chinese lunar colonists. At least some members of homo sapiens will get to leave the rock.
But as a Westerner who's read Heinlein, I'm pretty sure that sooner or later, those guys are going to end up more free and more happy than their government could ever imagine possible, even in its worst nightmares.
You go, Chinese guys. More power to ya.
Heinlein was a starry-eyed optimist to think it could ever happen on Earth, but he had a valid point on Luna - any resource-rich, low-population, but otherwise harsh environment practically necessitates the development of certain cultural norms.
All About New Technology (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:All About New Technology (Score:4, Interesting)
BUT, that same researcher will be given money to develop a means of turning human waste into fuel so that a human can be sent to Mars and back.
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Guys, perspective!! (Score:5, Insightful)
Tack on the expenses both nations had (US with Mercury & Gemini, USSR with the various Vostok missions), and the experience China will have to gain... I'd wager on a 2012 landing and 2020 at best for a permanent base. It will take many heavy-lifting flights to get stuff to the moon, and just one disaster to set back the whole timeframe.
Further, the natural Chinese economic advantage (lots of cheap labor), is of little value in the aerospace realm. Sure, you can have folks using picks and shovels on a dam along side modern construction equipment. But on a Saturn V/N-1 type rocket? Not likely.
Can they do it? Sure. So could ESA, Japan and probably a half dozen other nations like Australia, Brazil or India. Will they? Probably, they want the bragging rights. But by 2006? No way.
Re:Guys, perspective!! (Score:5, Funny)
Yeah, but they have the labor to build so many bad rockets, all they'd have to do is stack them up and climb to the moon. :-)
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Re:Guys, perspective!! (Score:5, Informative)
The ONLY way the Chinese can short cut technologically to get to the Moon is to use someone else's rocket design, modernize the design, and build it for such a mission. Given the fact the Chinese have been warming to better relations with the Russian Federation lately, I wouldn't be surprised that China has bought the plans for the old Soviet N-1 rocket and using plentiful Chinese expertise modernize the design for vastly improved reliability, plus design a modernized version of the Russian lunar lander. The Russians were on the right track for a lunar mission but the lack of funds doomed their lunar mission projects.
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Reasons to go to the Moon (Score:5, Insightful)
1. Scientific. These are pretty weak. Some nice radio and optical telescopes could be set up on the dark side. However, the next Space Telescope will be placed at Lagrange Point 2. That's pretty clean from Earthly interference and cheaper than the Moon. Exploration? Really, what are we going to find that will be useful that can not be done robotically?
2. Commercial. The solar cell idea is just stupid. Stick with Nuclear here on earth. Cheap, clean, and practically infinite. Maybe, someday, fusion will displace it. If so, H3 mining might be a winner for being on the Moon. I'm sure that will drive the Moon environmentalists up a tree. (hee hee). I can just see the protestors and signs now, "Stop Strip Mining the Moon! It's destroying the view from the earth for Spotted Owls." If we could ever make the per pound (screw you metric guys) cost to high orbit cheap enough... vacations would be a good reason to put up a colony. Just look at Vegas and Cancun. There's some serious scratch.
3. Political. That's why we (the US) went the first time. That's what the Chinese are up too. The US may have to do it just to keep the Chinese from being the only ones there. National pride can be an odd thing.
But the biggest political reason will be to get the fuck off Earth. That may be a while. Or a well funded cult may be the first to go. Too bad the Hal Bop guys are gone. It's easier to catch a lift on a Comet from the low gee of the Moon.
Happy meal toys (Score:5, Funny)
Are you kidding me? (Score:5, Insightful)
At my Washington office a few weeks ago, I met with a visiting Japanese parliamentarian who specializes in science and technology issues... In his view, the Chinese would be on the moon within three to four years.
parliamentarian
this is the only evidence he offers that China is even thinking of going to the moon. some random Chinese dude? well, I'm convinced, let's start a space race.
Bob Walker man must be a real patriot to be so concerned about the plight of America's space prestige. Who is this great thinker? oh wait... Bob Walker is a corporate lobbyist. For who? For these guys [wexlergroup.com]. Nice list of clientelle. I wonder if any of those people would benefit from increased public paranoia about a foreign space program?
-sweatyb
India vs. China -- the new Cold War (Score:5, Interesting)
Bruce Sterling wrote an interesting Wired column [wired.com] about the budding Cold War between India and China. Sterling reminds us that India is also interested in a space program, largely for the same reasons America was: symbolism and prestige.
As Pakistan weakens, India is starting to view China as its principal rival for South Asian hegemony. "India and China are comers with a lot to prove to the world, and especially to each other," Sterling writes. "Nuclear India versus nuclear China is Kennedy versus Kruschev, and Reagan versus Gorbachev, all over again. Now, as then, a space race is a sexy alternative to nuclear annihilation.
"China has openly declared its desire to colonize the moon. The world's most populous nation is unlikely to build lunar settlements, but that's not the point. China's motive lies not in constructing a lunar Hong Kong, but rather in luring India into a loud public competition. Later this year, if all goes as planned, China will become the third country to send a citizen into space. An orbiting taikonaut will be even more impressive if American shuttles are stuck in their hangars while the misnamed International Space Station limps along with a skeleton crew."
Sterling's conclusion sent a shudder of surprising revulsion through me: "A decade after the end of the Cold War, good old-fashioned space programs still matter. Not for exploration's sake, but to settle new cold wars. If you doubt it, imagine this scenario: It's 2029, and a lunar mission lands at Tranquillity Base. A crew of heroic young Indians - or Chinese - quietly folds and puts away America's 60-year-old flag. If the world saw that on television, wouldn't the gesture be worth tens of billions of rupees or yuan? Of course it would."
Thank god for the chinese (Score:5, Insightful)
I give them about 3 years before they've either made good on their threats and actualy seem to be going after this goal, or are shown to have simply issued another boast.
If in 3 years they have indeed begun the initiative to colonize the moon, you can be certain the US will get off it's collective ass and either infuse NASA with massive amounts of bucks and initiative, or simply kill them and replace them with a new goverment entity to acomplish the same goal.
there are two reasons for this.. A: if china sets up a weapons base on the moon we would be at a serious disadvantage the moment they develop anti-ICBM type defenses. Although this isnt near to happening now... it is an inevitability as far as the progression of tech in nearly all major societies.
The second reason... The US has one of the greatest attitudes possesed by man. Out right jealousy. If they do it, then we damn well WILL do it too AND better. Who cares about the expense... it's important simply because it is.
The reason NASA is grounded right now ISNT because they fucked up.... it's cause they fucked up and dont have much of a purpose thats beneficial to the miltary/social/economical intrests of the US corporations or populace. Put china upstairs.... and you can garentee our space program will geta shot in the arm well beyond anything we could imagine about the star wars project or otherwise.
nothing like good old economic/political rivalry to get the inovation engines running.
National prestige (Score:5, Insightful)
To the rest of the world, this is just one more triumph of the United States that nobody else has caught up to after 35 YEARS! The second country to land on the moon would still look big in the eyes of the rest of the world, and more-so if they build a moon base (something not even the USA has done).
On a different note, I'm going back to school for aerospace engineering. When touring the department, I found that they are having record enrollment in both their graduate and undergraduate programs. Kinda make's one wonder how many of them (like me) are switching from the computer industry...
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Big picture (Score:5, Insightful)
I always considered the moon landing an achievement for the entire human race.
Acknowledged that Americans had the technology, supplied the funding, and risked their people in pursuit of the world-wide dream of getting to the moon.
Americans have been too the moon, but much more importantly humans have been to the moon.
Dragon Action Figures [mibglobal.com.au]
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Re:Wakeup call (Score:4, Interesting)
You might not want to live on the moon. Your kids might not want to live on the moon. But if the human race doesn't get some skills in living away from this little blue bubble, we're not going to be able to:
We will need to be able to live away from the Earth at some point in the future. It's going to cost money sometime, but we have the technology to give it a try now. To learn from our mistakes and do better next time.
It shouldn't matter what country does it. However, if we're going down the "but that's my tax dollar" path, I'd rather my tax dollars went towards space exploration rather than some stupid war in Iraq.
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Re:Will a Sino-Lunar base be our Sputnik? (Score:5, Informative)
Err...that may well be how it was presented, but I think you'll find that the Russians had quite a lot to do with the defeat of Germany. Possibly more than any other nation (a hard thing for me to say, as I'm British), and they certainly earned their rest. And the scientists that helped with the American space programme were also captured German rocket scientists.
Cheers,
Ian
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Re:Will a Sino-Lunar base be our Sputnik? (Score:5, Insightful)
The American army is not invincible. Bush is pouring money down the toilet like it was going out of fashion. Look up the cost of each American cruise missile vs. the cost of Iraqi buildings. Look up the news item regarding how the Pentagon misplaced a trillion dollars. Look at the U.S. economy.
A person I know works with a major U.S. military contractor, on a vehicle project, in the 20 ton range. These things have huge pneumatic shocks; almost no natural force on Earth can touch 'em. And just the other day, they had to scrap a $2,000,000 vehicle because some asshole American grunts were joyriding the fucking thing off a cliff, for kicks. The troopers who pulled this stunt got off scot-free.
America is going to go down, hard, if they don't shape up. Their commanders don't understand cost-effective warfare. The Roman Empire fell because it alienated its satellite states, misused the legions, and because its leaders were mad with power and decadence. It can happen again.
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Re:Long Term Plan? (Score:4, Interesting)
Get away from your science fiction books and your fake Seven of Nine porn and try to understand something instead of perpetuating the "ignorant American" stereotype.
There's a reason you posted AC.
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